NPB Playoffs Are Here

Previewing the Climax Series and a few thoughts on the end of the season

In case you missed it,

Trevor "T-Ray" Raichura

and I recorded a podcast last Sunday talking a bit about how the 2025 NPB season played out, and a lot about previewing the first round of the playoffs, known as the Climax Series. Give it a listen below. Just ignore the part where I fumbled over my own notes.

NPB Climax Series First Stage Preview

In case you’d prefer to read rather than listen, here’s the written version for you to enjoy. A few new pieces of information about the starters and rosters have come up since we recorded.

How the 2025 Season Shook Out

As a Marines fan, this year was a lesson in character building. After back-to-back playoff appearances and a promising 3-0 start against SoftBank, it was nothing but downhill sledding on wet cement. Last in the Pacific League, last in NPB, and a losing record against basically everyone—except, somehow, over .500 in interleague play. Small miracles.

It wasn’t all bad. We did get to witness the emergence of young players like Misho Nishikawa (potential Rookie of the Year), Ryusei Terachi, and Daito Yamamoto along with pitchers Haruya Tanaka and Yuto Kimura.

Still, manager Masato Yoshii was forced into resigning and gave a tearful speech after the last game of the season*, many veteran players—including fan favorite and probably the most popular over the last decade, Takashi Ogino**—and newly appointed manager Saburo has declared a return to Showa-era practices. The Showa era ended in 1989.

*Yoshii said “I wanted to do a little more.” Many fans in the stands, including Kana, were crying. People were shouting how much they loved him. He’d been with the team as a coach since 2017 before being appointed manager before the 2023 season.

**More on Ogi-san to come.

The rest of the Pacific League went mostly as expected, with the Hawks and Fighters on top. I thought the Marines and Buffaloes would fight for third and fourth, but it turned into Buffaloes vs. Eagles instead. The Lions started hot—way better than last year—but now they’re posting Takahashi and might lose Imai too, so good luck with that rebuild. SoftBank, meanwhile, looked dead in April (9–15, last place), then casually posted the best record in the league every month after that. Classic Hawks.

In the Central League, the Tigers remain the most consistent team in Japan. That’s three straight years near the top, and they still look balanced and infuriatingly well-run. The BayStars, last year’s champs, are right there too—two straight third-place finishes, now a second. The Giants won the pennant last year, then signed Takuya Kai, Raidel Martínez, and Masahiro Tanaka only to fall to third this year. The Carp might have the biggest grievance: second place in 2023, then a September collapse (5–20) for the ages in 2024 to miss the playoffs. The Swallows, well, they finished last and are still losing Munetaka Murakami.

Now we’ve got the Climax Series. Each league sends its top three: the pennant winner (already the league champion) and two wild cards. Round one is best-of-three, all at the second-place team’s park. Round two is best-of-seven, all at the pennant winner’s park, and they start with a one-win advantage because Japan actually respects the regular season. I think it’s a great system. The only thing I hate is that all the games happen at the same time, as if we haven’t invented multiple time slots in the year 2025.

Orix Buffaloes at Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

Fighters: 83-57-3
Buffaloes: 74-66-3
Head-to-head: 12-12-1

These two were evenly matched against each other, but overall, the Fighters are the stronger team. With a +139 run differential to Orix’s –17, they’ve got a deeper pitching staff and a stronger bullpen. The Buffaloes have also been playing under .500 since the end of June.

Game 1 will feature Fighters ace Hiromi Itoh (14–8, 2.52 ERA) against Orix’s big wildcard, Shunpeita Yamashita (1-0, 1.25). Just 23 years old, he was Rookie of the Year in 2023, struggled last season, and missed almost all of this one before returning in September to strike out 30 in 19.2 innings. Shinjo’s already announced his other starters: Koki Kitayama (9-5, 1.63) and Kota Tatsu (8-2, 2.09). The Buffaloes will counter with Allen Kuri (11-8, 2.41) and Hiroya Miyagi (7-3, 2.39).

If Franmil Reyes is healthy and the Fighters can get to Orix’s bullpen, they win.

Prediction: Fighters in 3.

Yomiuri Giants at Yokohama DeNA BayStars

BayStars: 71-66-6
Giants: 70-69-4
Head-to-head: 15-9-1 Giants

The Giants have the second-highest payroll in Japan and outplayed Yokohama in the regular season. Still, the BayStars have the stronger lineup—especially with Shugo Maki back—and a much better rotation.

Game 1 will feature Anthony Kay (9-6 1.74 ERA) against Yomiuri’s Iori Yamasaki (11-4, 2.07). After that, the BayStars have Katsuki Azuma (14-8, 2.19) and Andre Jackson (10-7, 2.33) lined up, while the Giant’s Abe has decided to go with Shosei Togo (8-9, 4.14) and Kai Yokogawa (2-0, 2.59 in 25 games/8 starts).

Yamasaki, who celebrated his birthday yesterday, is the Giants’ only hope: Azuma and Jackson are much better bets than Togo and Yokogawa, who has mostly been a reliever the past two seasons.

Prediction: BayStars in 3.

The Pennant Winners

SoftBank still looks like the NPB dynasty of the century (eight Japan Series titles since 2000) and has been on a mission since last year’s embarrassing loss to the BayStars. But they announced just the other day that last year’s MVP, Kensuke Kondoh, likely won’t make it for the second round of the playoffs. That’s something if you’re the other team.

As for the Tigers, they clinched the pennant back in early September and have been coasting since. They’re quietly competent from top to bottom, which is both admirable and extremely boring if you’re not from Kansai. Plus, who doesn’t love Lindberg?

Who are your picks to win it all? The first round starts today in just a few hours.